♪♪ >> CATHY: AS WE JUST NOTED, MINNESOTA'S FIRST CONFIRMED CASE OF COVID-19 WAS FIVE YEARS AGO THIS WEEK.

A LOT HAS HAPPENED IN THE WORLD OF PUBLIC HEALTH SINCE THEN, INCLUDING A FLURRY OF ACTIVITY IN THE FIRST SIX WEEKS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THAT HAS MANY HEALTH OFFICIALS CONCERNED.

MIKE OSTERHOLM IS BACK.

HE HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE RESEARCH AND POLICY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

IT'S ALWAYS GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

LET'S START WITH COVID.

WHEN WAS THE POINT THAT YOU REALIZED THAT WE WERE IN DEEP TROUBLE AND THIS WAS A WORLD-CHANGING EVENT?

>> ACTUALLY I POSTED A PIECE ON OUR WEBSITE ON JANUARY 20TH OF 2020, SAYING THE PANDEMIC IS HERE.

GET ON WITH IT.

WE HAVE GOT TO BE BETTER PREPARED FOR WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

AND I LARGELY WAS MET WITH RIDICULE BY MANY OF MY PROFESSIONAL COLLEAGUES WHO SAID YOU'RE JUST SCARING THE HELL OUT OF PEOPLE.

WE HAD A NUMBER OF CONTACTS IN WUHAN AND HONG KONG AND WE COULD SEE ALL THIS ASYMPTOMATIC TRANSMISSION.

AND SO THERE WAS NO DOUBT IN MY MIND AS EARLY AS JANUARY IT WAS GOING TO BE WHAT IT ENDED UP BEING.

>> Eric: YOU SAY THAT COVID IS ON THE RETREAT?

>> YEAH, YOU KNOW, I MEAN, FIRST, JUST TAKE A STEP BACK.

YOU KNOW, HERE IN MINNESOTA, WE'VE LOST 17,000 MINNESOTANS TO COVID.

YOU KNOW, IT'S MORE HAN THE CITY OF BEMIDJI.

WHEN YOU LOOK ON A GLOBAL BASIS, IT'S REMARKABLE, AND IN THE U.S., 1.2 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE DIED.

AND SO WHEN YOU THINK OF THE WHOLE, YOU KNOW, LAST FIVE YEARS, EVERYTHING'S RELATIVE.

YOU KNOW, WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW WITH COVID WOULD HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED A MAJOR PUBLIC HEALTH PROBLEM BEFORE 2020.

NOW TODAY WE SAY, OH, IT'S ONLY THIS BAD.

BUT IT IS IN FACT GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, WE'VE SEEN GENERALLY COVID CASES CONTINUE TO DROP OVER TIME, WE HAVE HAD ONE LITTLE PEAK THAT CAME UP.

WE ALSO, HAVING GONE THROUGH A HORRIBLE FLU SEASON THIS YEAR, WE'RE SEEING THAT ON RETREAT.

AND THEN FINALLY THE FIRST ONE OF THE RESPIRATORY VIRUSES ALSO ON REVOTE.

SO I THINK WE'RE PROBABLY WITHIN A MONTH TO TWO MONTHS AT LEAST OF THE BEST MONTHS FOR RESPIRATORY IRUS TRANSMISSION IN MINNESOTA THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

>> Cathy: OKAY, THAT'S REALLY GOOD NEWS.

I WANT TO GO BACK TO COVID.

IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A STRAIN OF COVID THAT COULD YET POP UP THAT WOULD BE AS DEADLY?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

AND IN FACT, NEWS MEDIA COVERED A STORY ABOUT TWO WEEKS AGO OF THE CHINESE ANNOUNCING THAT THEY HAD FOUND ANOTHER STRAIN OUT OF A BAT THAT ACTUALLY HAD THE SAME MECHANISM FOR GRABBING HUMAN CELLS AND GETTING INSIDE OF THEM AS THE ORIGINAL S.A.R.S.

COULD HE V2.

CLEARLY, THIS WAS NOT THE BIG ONE.

WE COULD EASILY HAVE A MUCH HIGHER ATTACK RATE AND SERIOUS ILLNESS OCCUR.

JUST, REMEMBER, THERE ARE TWO OTHER STRAINS OF THE CORONAVIRUS, THAT WE HAVE SEEN, S.A.R.S., WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003, AND KILLED ABOUT 30 -- 25 TO 30%, AND THEN WE HAD M.E.R.S.

THAT OCCURRED IN 2012 AND '15 AND THAT KILLED 35% OF THE PEOPLE.

COVID, AS WE KNOW IT, KILLED ABOUT 1.5% TO 2% OF THE PEOPLE.

IF YOU COULD GET A VIRUS THAT'S AS INFECTIOUS AS COVID BUT KILLS LIKE THE OTHER TWO DID, WE WOULD SEE A HORRIBLE SITUATION AND THAT SURELY IS ON THE TABLE.

THAT COULD EASILY HAPPEN.

THAT'S NOT SOME KIND OF JUST SCIENCE FICTION.

>> Eric: WHAT SHAPE IS OUR PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM IN?

>> IT'S DISASTROUS.

RIGHT NOW IN MINNESOTA, I'M FRIGHTENED BY WHAT I SEE HAPPENING.

OUR STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT IS CLEARLY IN TROUBLE WITHOUT FINANCING.

95% OF THE ALL THE INFECTIOUS DISEASE FUNDING FOR OUR STATE IS FEDERAL MONEY.

AND THAT MONEY IS ON THE LINE RIGHT NOW.

AND IF YOU KNOW, WE'VE HEARD ABOUT BUDGETS AND YOU'RE GOING TO BE TALKING TO MORE PEOPLE ABOUT WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH BUDGETS.

I THINK THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE AGENCIES LIKE MINNESOTA'S HEALTH DEPARTMENT AND MANY OTHERS LITERALLY BECOME SKELETON CREWS.

SO FROM THAT STANDPOINT, WE'RE IN TROUBLE.

THE SECOND PART OF IT, THOUGH, IS, IS THAT PUBLIC HIT ISN'T BELIEVED IN A LOT OF PLACES ANYMORE BECAUSE OF WHAT HAPPENED WITH COVID.

AND WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW DO WE RELATE TO THE PUBLIC?

ONE OF THE THINGS, AND I MUST COMPLIMENT "ALMANAC," BECAUSE THIS SHOW HAS PAID ATTENTION TO THIS TOPIC FROM THE VERY FIRST DAYS OF THE PANDEMIC TO NOW, AND I THINK THAT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE IN OUR DISCUSSIONS HERE HAVE TALKED ABOUT IS JUST HONESTY.

WHAT DO WE KNOW AND NOT KNOW?

AND THERE WERE SO MANY TIMES IN THE PANDEMIC WE DIDN'T KNOW.

YOU KNOW, WE'D SAY, WE'LL TELL YOU, WE'RE GOING TO FOLLOW IT, WE'RE GOING TO UNDERSTAND IT BETTER IN THE NEXT WEEK OR THE NEXT MONTH.

A LOT OF PLACES THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN.

THERE WAS THIS ALMOST STATEMENT MADE ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN AND IT DIDN'T HAPPEN OR IT HAPPENED A LOT WORSE.

AND SO WE HAVE A LOT TO O GET OUR OWN HOUSE IN ORDER TO BETTER RESPOND TO THESE KINDS OF CRISES LIKE THIS.

>> Cathy: I'M WONDERING, THEN, I DID NOT KNOW THAT ABOUT -- THAT MONEY, 95% OF THE FUNDING FOR THE STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT COMES FROM THE FED.

I DID NOT KNOW THAT.

SO WHAT HAPPENS IF THE STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT IS GUTTED?

ARE WE TALKING ABOUT VACCINATION PROGRAMS, PUBLIC HEALTH PROGRAMS?

>> EVERYTHING IS ON THE TABLING.

AND INTOIS I DON'T THINK PEOPLEY UNDERSTAND THAT.

WE HAVE HAD THE LUXURY OF LIVING IN THE STATE FOR ONE OF THE VERY BEST HEALTH DEPARTMENTS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 25 TO 30 YEARS, OKAY, AMAZING HEALTH DEPARTMENT.

THAT IS ALL GOING TO BE LOST IF WE SEE THE FEDERAL CUTS THAT WE THINK ARE COMING.

AND, YOU KNOW, WE ALREADY HAVE SEEN THE -- SOME ORECAST OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO STATES, AND I THINK THAT WE'RE IN REAL TROUBLE HERE.

OUR LEGISLATURE IS OT IN A GREAT PLACE TO SUDDENLY BAIL A BIG PROGRAM LIKE THIS OUT.

BUT, YOU KNOW, AS THERE WAS AN OLD COMMERCIAL MANY YEARS AGO WHEN WE WERE YOUNGER, THE OIL FAMILY COMMERCIAL WHERE WAS THE LINE WAS YOU CAN PAY ME NOW OR YOU CAN PAY ME LATER AND I THINK WE REALLY ARE AT THAT MOMENT RIGHT NOW WITH PUBLIC HEALTH.

>> Eric: FUTURE OF VACCINES.

>> IF PEOPLE WON'T TAKE IT, IT'S NOT ANY GOOD.

AND WE HAD HAD A LOT OF CHALLENGES WITH THIS MRNA TECHNOLOGY THAT CAME OUT AND WHILE IT'S A GOOD VACCINE, IT'S NOT A GOOD VACCINE IN THE SENSE THAT IT GIVES YOU LIFELONG PROTECTION.

I WORRY, THOUGH.

IN ADDITION, I WORRY, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY ABOUT $500 MILLION THAT THEY PUT INTO TAKING THE MRNA TECHNOLOGY AND ADOPTING TO INFLUENZA, TAKE THE H5N1, THER BIRD FLU VIRUS, THAT JUST GOT CLAWED BACK BY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.

>> KEEP IN TOUCH.