♪♪ >> Cathy: WE ARE NEVER BORED HERE ON "ALMANAC" AND I'M GUESSING OUR PANEL OF POLITICAL SCIENTISTS HAVE BEEN KEEPING BUSY TOO.

WE'RE GOING TO IVE RIGHT IN WITH TONIGHT'S PROFESSORS.

DAVID SCHULTZ TEACHES POLITICAL SCIENCE AT HMM LIN UNIVERSITY AND ALSO AN ADJUNCT LAW PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ST. THOMAS.

ACROSS THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA'S POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT IS WHERE YOU WILL FIND PROFESSOR MICHAEL MINTA.

AND A BIT FURTHER ACROSS ANOTHER RIVER COMPLETELY, NEIL KRAUS TEACHES POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN RIVER FALLS.

GO, FALCONS.

ALL RIGHT, GENTLEMEN, GOOD TO SEE Y'ALL.

PROFESSOR MINTA, LET US TALK A BIT HERE ABOUT TINA SMITH NOT SEEKING REELECTION AS WAS BROUGHT UP BY OUR REPORTER FRIEND JOHN MCCORMICK.

A LITTLE UNUSUAL.

SHE'S STEPPING ASIDE AT KIND OF A YOUNG AGE.

[ LAUGHTER ] VERSUS OTHER SENATORS THAT ARE HANGIN' OUT AND BEEN THERE MUCH LONGER.

>> CONSIDERING AVERAGE AGE IS LIKE 63 SO SHE'S A LITTLE YOUNGISH IN TERMS OF STEPPING AWAY BUT SHE SAYS SHE WANTS TO SPEND TIME WITH HER FAMILY.

I DON'T KNOW, IT'S OING TO BE A TOUGH RUN FOR THE DEMOCRATS IN 2026.

IT'S LIKE 53-46, CAN THEY WIN ALL OF THESE COMPETITIVE SEATS.

NOW HER SEATS, NOW DEMOCRATS ARE ACTUALLY CONCERNED BECAUSE MINNESOTA MAY BE FAIRLY COMPETITIVE THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS.

SO AND YOU SEE HERE'S LIKE THIS FIGHT ON WHO'S GOING TO BE NEXT.

I MEAN, LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR, EXCUSE ME, PEGGY FLANAGAN'S ALREADY SAID, PUT THE GAUNTLET DOWN, TIM WALZ OBVIOUSLY WE'RE LOOKING AT WHAT HE'S GOING TO DO.

SO I DON'T KNOW.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING.

ILHAN OMAR HAS SAID THAT SHE'S INTERESTED.

>> Cathy: A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE INTERESTED.

>> OH, YEAH.

>> THAT'S PROBABLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM AT THIS POINT IS THE FACT THAT THERE MAY BE SO MANY PEOPLE INTERESTED THAT THE INFIGHTING WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS GOING TO GOBBLE EACH OTHER UP OF WHICH ALSO WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE FACT THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE'S BEEN NO REPUBLICAN STATEWIDE ELECTED SINCE TIM PAWLENTY'S SECOND TIME AS GOVERNOR WHAT WE'RE STARTING TO FIND OUT IS A LARGE CHUNK OF MINNESOTA IS NOWHERE NEAR AS LIBERAL AS THE TWIN CITIES.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS HERE, THE CAUCUSES, CONVENTIONS FOR DEMOCRATS, FAR MORE LIBERAL THAN THE REST OF THE STATE.

THEY COULD WIND UP NOMINATING SOMEBODY WHO COULD VERY WELL BE OUT OF STATE WITH THE REST OF THE STATE.

>> Eric: WISCONSIN IS A TRUE SWING STATE UNLIKE MINNESOTA, MAYBE THEY SAY WELL, IT'S PURPLE MAYBE.

AND WITH THE CHARACTER OF WISCONSIN AND ITS ECONOMY, IS TRUMP GOING TO, YOU KNOW, BE ABLE TO -- WHAT I'M TRYING TO SAY -- WILL HE BE ABLE TO REMAIN POPULAR IS WHAT I'M TRYING TO GET AT.

>> YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW, I THINK THERE'S SO MUCH GOING ON IN THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS.

I MEAN, HE'S TRYING TO SORT OF GET RID OF AGENCIES AND MASS LAYOFFS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

AND I TEND TO WONDER IF 2026 MIGHT BE AN EASY YEAR FOR THE DEMS IN MINNESOTA.

BECAUSE I JUST, SEEMS LIKE SO MUCH OVERREACH HERE.

AND I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, HE'S REALLY, TRUMP IS REALLY PUSHING THE LIMITS AND I'M NOT SO SURE THAT ONCE PEOPLE START TO SEE, WELL, FOR EXAMPLE, I READ TODAY A THOUSAND I THINK NATIONAL PARK SERVICE EMPLOYEES ARE GOING TO BE LAID OFF.

PEOPLE ARE GOING TO START SEEING THESE KINDS OF THINGS.

>> I THINK IT ALL EPENDS ON HOW MUCH IT HITS THE FANS IN TERMS OF WHAT I'M SAYING WHAT I MEAN BY THAT, A LOT OF THESE ARE RURAL AREAS, TRUMP AREAS ACTUALLY START FEELING THE PAIN.

JOBS ARE BEING LOST, SERVICES ARE BEING LOST, HAT ONE AND ASSUMING THAT THERE'S A REACTION TO THE ECONOMICS AND THAT THE LOYALTY TO TRUMP ISN'T JUST BASICALLY, YOU KNOW, BASED ON PERSONALITY, THEN IT COULD BE LIKE WHAT NEIL IS SAYING HERE 2026 COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING LIKE RIGHT NOW A COUNTERREACTION.

>> Cathy: SAY, WHERE'S CONGRESS IN ALL OF THIS?

I MEAN DON'T REALLY HEAR -- IT'S QUIET OVER THERE WITH THAT BRANCH.

>> OH, YEAH, I MEAN, IT'S PARTY POLITICS, RIGHT?

WHERE IF A DEMOCRAT OBVIOUSLY WAS DOING ALL OF THIS THEY WOULD BE RAISING HELL BUT SINCE THE REPUBLICANS CONTROL THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE, I MEAN, I THINK YOU SAW WITH SOME OF THE NOMINATIONS, RIGHT, MITCH MCCONNELL IS LIKE BEING THE DISSENTING VOICE WHICH IS KIND OF UNUSUAL IN 2025, BUT, YEAH, I THINK MANY PEOPLE JUST DON'T WANT TO STEP IN, THEY DON'T WANT TO OFFEND REPUBLICAN PARTY AND PARTICULARLY PRESIDENT TRUMP AND GET ON THE BAD SIDE BECAUSE THEY WANT LEGISLATION THAT'S GOING TO COME THROUGH, THEY WANT FUNDING FOR THEIR DISTRICTS AND THEY DON'T WANT THE PRESIDENT GETTING IN THE WAY OF THAT.

>> Eric: THE COURTS DON'T HAVE A STANDING ARMY OR THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE THROWING PEOPLE IN JAIL.

>> RIGHT.

, WHAT'S GOING TO KEEP THE PRESIDENT AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FROM OBEYING?

>> WELL, THIS IS THE MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION AT SOME POINT IS THAT WE'VE GOT A NEARLY 250-YEAR TRADITION OF THINGS CALLED, WHAT, RESPECT FOR RULE OF LAW, WELL ENSCONCED IN THE LAW IS THE IDEA THAT THE COURTS GET TO MAKE THE CALL ON CONSTITUTIONALITY.

AND OLITICAL SCIENTISTS INCREASINGLY THE LAST FEW YEARS HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE UNWRITTEN NORMS THAT YOU SORT OF ACCEPT THE FACT AND SAY, YES, THE COURTS SPEAK, YOU OBEY.

WHAT TRUMP HAS BEEN CHALLENGING ALL OF THOSE AND THAT'S REALLY THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

IF HE NOW STARTS TO SAY I'M NOT GOING TO OBEY COURTS AS YOU POINTED OUT, CONGRESS IS LAYING DOWN AT THIS POINT, PARTY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN CHECKS AND BALANCES.

I HATE TO USE THE PHRASE CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS BUT AT THAT POINT IT'S CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS TIME.

>> I THINK WHAT WE'RE SEEING WE'VE ALWAYS ASSUMED I THINK IN THE UNITED STATES THAT DEMOCRACY AND SOME VERSION OF FREE MARKETS GO TOGETHER, SOME VERSION OF CAPITALISM.

I THINK WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THAT'S NOT THE CASE AND WE'VE KNOWN THAT JUST LOOKING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORLD.

>> YES.

>> SO MARKETS ARE DOING GREAT.

THE ECONOMY SEEMS TO BE DOING GREAT.

IF THE RULE OF LAW IS MAINTAINED IT'S SORT OF AN OPEN QUESTION.

>> IT IS AT THIS OINT.

>> ALSO SUGGESTING AT THIS POINT THAT THE AMERICAN PUBLIC HAS GOTTEN KIND OF, WHAT, TIRED OF DEMOCRACY ON ONE LEVEL.

ON ONE LEVEL.

>> WELL, I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW IF I AGREE WITH YOU ON THAT, BUT, YEAH.

>> WELL, I WAS GOING TO SAY FOR A LOT OF THEM IS IT'S MORE IMPORTANT FOR THEM FOR ECONOMY TO PERFORM THAN DEMOCRACY TO PERFORM.

>> ONE THING I WANT TO SAY I THINK THAT TRUMP AND HIS TEAM ARE VERY STRATEGIC, EVERYONE'S SAYING THEY GOT TO FOLLOW THE LAW, THEY GOT TO FOLLOW THE LAW, THEY'RE PUSHING THE EDGE, GETTING THESE DISTRICT COURTS TO RULE AGAINST THEM BUT THEY'RE HOPING EVENTUALLY IT WILL GO TO THE SUPREME COURT AND IN THE SUPREME COURT WILL BE STACKED IN THEIR FAVOR AND THAT THEY WILL BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LAW SO THEY'RE REALLY GOING AFTER THE CIVIL SERVICE, THEY'RE REALLY TRYING TO GET THESE INDEPENDENT AGENCIES, THEY'RE REALLY TRYING TO SQUASH THAT.

AND I THINK IF THEY GET THAT THEN THE LIBERALS OR DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO HAVE A VERY HARD TIME TALKING ABOUT RULE OF LAW BECAUSE THEY THINK THE LAW WILL BE ON HEIR SIDE.

>> I THINK YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

I THINK WE HAVE TO WONDER AT THIS POINT IS THAT WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE IF NOW THEY'RE DEFYING THE COURTS AND WE DON'T KNOW, IT'S A HYPOTHESIS HERE, IF YOU'RE NOW DEFYING THE COURTS DOES THE SUPREME COURT ACTUALLY COME IN AND DO ITS INSTITUTIONAL ROLE AND SAY YOU CAN'T TREAD ON OUR BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT.

I DON'T KNOW, I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER.

>> Cathy: WHAT HAPPENS, CAN YOU EXPLAIN TO VIEWERS, IF IT GOES -- IF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PRESSES FORWARD AND DOESN'T FOLLOW THESE ORDERS, EVEN IF IT GOES TO THE SUPREME COURT AND THEY JUST SHRUG, I MEAN, WHAT APPENS EXACTLY?

>> WE ARE IN OMEWHAT LIMBOLAND AT THIS POINT.

I HATE TO SAY THAT WE DON'T REALLY HAVE A SITUATION LIKE THIS WHERE I WAS TELLING MY STUDENTS THE OTHER DAY BACK IN 1974 NIXON SAID, WELL, MAYBE I WON'T COMPLY WITH THE SUPREME COURT AND HE DID AT THE END OF THE DAY.

NOW, PARTLY IT'S ALSO BECAUSE YOU HAD BERRY GOLDWATER SAY TO HIM THAT, LISTEN, YOU'RE ALREADY OUT, IF YOU DEFY, YOU'RE DEFINITELY OUT IN TERMS OF YOU WON'T HAVE THE VOTES IN THE SENATE.

THERE WERE STILL SOME CHECKS THERE.

WE'VE LOST MOST OF THOSE CHECKS.

AGAIN, I LOOK AT THIS AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE'VE LEARNED FROM CROSS THE WORLD IS THAT OVERLY STRONG EXECUTIVES AND DEMOCRACY ARE NOT COMPATIBLE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND YOU NEED TO HAVE SOME KIND OF CHECKS OF THAT EXECUTIVE POWER.

IF THOSE ARE GONE THEN THERE'S A SIGNIFICANT ROSION OF DEMOCRACY.

>> I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW IF WE EASILY COME BACK FROM IT IF THAT APPENS.

>> YEAH, EXACTLY.

>> I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE FUTURE REALLY LOOKS LIKE.

AND IF ELECTED OFFICIALS IN BOTH PARTIES IN WASHINGTON, IF OTHER LEADERS IN OUR SOCIETY DON'T STEP FORWARD AT THAT POINT I'M NOT QUITE SURE WHAT HAPPENS.

>> Eric: DO DEMOCRATS HAVE TO DO BETTER MESSAGING OR DO THEY NEED A BETTER MESSAGE?

IN OTHER WORDS PEOPLE HEARD THE MESSAGE AND DIDN'T LIKE IT.

>> YEAH.

YEAH.

I MEAN, I THINK THE ONE THING THAT DEMOCRATS ARE HAVING AN ISSUE WITH OBVIOUSLY IS THE MONEY.

I MEAN, IT'S RAISING MONEY AND TARGETING -- WHEN YOU HAVE ELON MUSK, YOU GOT TIM MELON AND EVEN THOUGH YOU SAY DEMOCRATS RAISE A LOT OF ONEY BUT IT'S PUSHING IT IN THESE DIFFERENT CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS AND U.S. SENATE RACES AND ALSO APPARENTLY TO FIGHT THESE COURT BATTLES.

I MEAN, REPUBLICANS SEEM TO HAVE ENDLESS MONEY AND SO I THINK THEY HAVE TO RAISE MORE MONEY AND I DO THINK IT'S PART OF THE MESSAGING TOO.

>> I ALSO THINK I WAS GOING TO