>> Eric: FULL HOUR OF POLITICS AND ANALYSIS FOR YOU TONIGHT ON THE HEELS OF TUESDAY'S ELECTION.

WE'LL TALK WITH TWO FORMER HOUSE SPEAKERS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TIE IN THE STATE HOUSE AND LOOK AT THE END OF HE D TRIFECTA AT MINNES MINNESOTA'S STATE CAPITOL.

DOMINIC PAPATOLA HAS AN ELECTION WEEK ESSAY FOR US.

AND WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT A SECOND TRUMP PRESIDENCY COULD MEAN FOR THE ECONOMY.

>> Cathy: AND THE SECOND TRUMP PRESIDENCY IS WHERE WE START TONIGHT.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S RE-SOUNDING ICTORY ON TUESDAY NIGHT PUTS HIM IN RARE COMPANY.

HE JOINS GROVER CLEVELAND AS JUST THE SECOND .S.

PRESIDENT TO BE ELECTED TO NONCONSECUTIVE TERMS.

TRUMP ALSO BECAME THE FIRST REPUBLICAN TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE SINCE FORMER PRESIDENT BUSH DEFEATED JOHN KERRY 20 YEARS AGO.

JOINING US TO SORT THROUGH A LANDSLIDE WIN THAT POLLS SAID WAS GOING TO BE PRETTY MUCH A TIE, A DUO OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS, LARRY JACOBS HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE AT THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL.

STEVE SCHEER IS PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT CARLETON COLLEGE.

GOOD TO SEE YOU BOTH.

WHERE SHOULD WE START?

[ LAUGHTER ] LET'S LOOK AT IT I GUESS HISTORICALLY SPEAKING AS I MENTIONED IN THE LEAD ERE, PROFESSOR SCHEER, THIS WAS AN EXTRAORDINARY PERFORMANCE BY DONALD TRUMP.

HOW DO YOU PUT THIS INTO SOME SORT OF HISTORICAL CONTEXT?

>> OFTEN THEY SAY THERE ARE NO SECOND LIVES IN POLITICS BUT THAT'S WRONG.

TRUMP BASICALLY THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN PROVED OUT TO BE ACCURATE ON ELECTION DAY.

THEY CLAIMED TO BE AHEAD IN ALL THE KEY STATES AND THEY CLAIMED THEY WERE GOING TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE, GUESS WHAT?

THEIR ANALYSIS AND THEIR RESEARCH PROVED TO BE CORRECT.

>> Cathy: I WONDER, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE ELEMENTS THAT WENT INTO THIS TRUMP WIN?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> WELL, IN SOME WAYS IT WAS AN EXTRAORDINARY ELECTION.

YOU HAD BIDEN PULLING OUT AND HARRIS STEPPING IN, HAVEN'T HAD THAT BEFORE.

YOU HAD A CONVICTED CANDIDATE WHO JUST SIX MONTHS AGO WE SAID WAS OUT OF IT, WHO WON.

IN A LOT OF WAYS IT WAS PLAIN VANILLA.

AT THE END OF THE DAY, PRESIDENT INCUMBENT BIDEN VERY UNPOPULAR 6 OUT OF 10 VOTERS, 81% OF THOSE PEOPLE THEN VOTED FOR TRUMP.

AND THEN THE ECONOMIC FORCES WERE JUST HUGE.

IF YOU THOUGHT THE ECONOMY WAS POOR OR JUST GOOD, WHICH WAS TWO-THIRDS THEN YOU WERE OVERWHELMINGLY GOING TO BE VOTING FOR TRUMP.

AND THAT'S JUST KIND OF A USUAL REFERENDUM KIND OF ELECTION THAT WE'VE SEEN A BUNCH OF TIMES.

WHAT MADE THIS EXTRAORDINARY I THINK WAS DONALD TRUMP.

>> YEAH.

>> Eric: COUPLE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN IN THE ELECTORATE.

>> YES.

>> Eric: FIRST OF ALL WHAT ABORTION OVERSOLD AS A DEFINING ISSUE.

>> I THINK TO EXTENT IT WAS, IF YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE GENDER GAP IT WAS SMALLER THIS YEAR THAN IT WAS IN 2020, ACCORDING A.P.

'S VOTE CAST SURVEY.

WHICH DOES SUGGEST THAT WHAT WAS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN THERE WAS GOING TO BE THIS SWEEPING GROUP OF WOMEN THAT WERE GOING TO PULL HER INTO OFFICE DIDN'T OCCUR.

>> Eric: IF ONLY WOMEN WERE COUNTED, IF ONLY WOMEN HAD VOTED SHE GETS OVER 400 ELECTORAL VOTES.

>> YEAH, AND THE WAY IT WORKS IS THAT MEN AND WOMEN GET TO VOTE.

[ LAUGHTER ] >> Eric: FORGOT THAT PART.

>> BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT, IT'S KIND OF DEVASTATING.

I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THE FOLKS WHO ARE VOTING WHO DON'T HAVE COLLEGE EDUCATIONS, PARTICULARLY THE MEN, HISPANIC MEN, I MEAN, THEY JUST MOVED DECIDEDLY TOWARDS DONALD TRUMP.

IN FACT, I THINK IT REALLY RAISES SOME VERY PROFOUND QUESTIONS ABOUT DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAT IS SO FAR FROM WORKING MEN AND WOMEN THAT THEY ARE NOW TURNING TO DONALD TRUMP, WHOSE POLICIES ARE NOT FOR THEM.

I MEAN, HIS POLICIES ARE REALLY, YOU KNOW, GEARED TO TAX CUTS FOR THOSE WHO HAVE MONEY AND SO THIS IS THE BIG PUZZLE.

WHAT ARE THE DRATS GOING TO DO?

>> Cathy: WHAT DIDN'T VOTERS REMEMBER ABOUT -- I'VE HAD PEOPLE ASK ME THIS WEEK.

WHAT DIDN'T VOTERS REMEMBER ABOUT THE CHAOS OF THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY, THE FIRST PRESIDENCY, THE COVID MESS?

I MEAN, WHAT WERE THEY REMEMBERING?

>> THEY WERE REMEMBERING A BETTER ECONOMY AND RELATIVELY SECURE BORDER.

AND THOSE WERE THE TOP TWO ISSUES IN HE ELECTION, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE EXIT POLLS AND OTHER SURVEYS.

AND THAT'S VANILLA, AS LARRY WAS SAYING.

THAT WOULD DRIVE A LOT OF VOTERS TO THE POLLS.

THIS WAS A CLASS-BASED ELECTION WITH, WE'RE IGNORING THIS IN A LOT OF OUR COMMENTARY.

IF YOU MADE UNDER $100,000 A YEAR, YOU OTED FOR TRUMP.

IF YOU MADE OVER $100,000 A YEAR, A MAJORITY VOTED FOR HARRIS.

AS LARRY IS SUGGESTING, THAT CAN BE A PROBLEM FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

THERE ARE A LOT MORE PEOPLE WHO MAKE LESS THAN 100,000 THAN MAKE OVER.

>> I THINK YOUR QUESTION IS A FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION.

THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE COUNTRY WHO ARE QUESTIONING DEMOCRACY.

IS IT WORKING?

AND I WOULD SAY NOT REALLY.

AND I WOULD START WITH THE POLITICAL PARTIES.

>> YEAH.

>> THE POLITICAL PARTY AND REPUBLICAN PARTY SHOULD NEVER HAVE NOMINATED DONALD TRUMP.

IF YOU LOOK IN EUROPE, UNITED KINGDOM JUST HAD AN ELECTION THIS SUMMER.

THEY DID NOT NOMINATE THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER CORBIN BUZZ SHE WAS A TROT SKI-ITE AND ANTI-SEMITE.

AND THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY REFUSED TO NOMINATE RIGHT WINGERS.

AND WE DON'T HAVE A PARTY THAT DOES IT.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF VERY CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS WHO COULD HAVE RUN BUT IT'S DONALD TRUMP, AND THE REASON HE WON IS BECAUSE HE MOBILIZED THE PRIMARY VOTER WHO WERE LOYAL TO HIM, IT'S A SMALL NUMBER, THEY'RE NOT REPRESENTATIVE.

YOU GET TIE GENERAL ELECTION AND IT'S LIKE CIRCLE THE WAGONS AMONG REPUBLICANS.

895% OF WHOM VOTED FOR HIM DESPITE LIZ CHENEY'S PLEAS.

>> YEAH.

>> IS THERE GOING TO BE PRESSURE ON JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR TO STEP DOWN BEFORE BIDEN'S OUT OF OFFICE TO GET A YOUNGER DEMOCRAT IN THERE FOR SUPREME COURT?

>> YES,S BUT THOSE CAMPAIGNS ARE NOTORIOUSLY UNSUCCESSFUL.

AND IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HER HEALTH.

IF HER HEALTH DRIVES HER OUT OF OFFICE THEN SHE WILL LEAVE.

BUT OTHER THAN THAT I THINK IT'S UNLIKELY.

>> Cathy: SAY, CAN I ASK YOU BOTH, I'M GOING TO STEP IN THIS MAYBE, BUT COULD YOU RATE THE MEDIA'S ERFORMANCE IN TERMS OF HOW WE COVERED THIS CAMPAIGN?

>> WELL, THE MEDIA WORLD IS CHANGING DRAMATICALLY.

MAJOR NETWORKS COVERAGE ON ELECTION NIGHT RECEIVED 25% LOWER AUDIENCE.

WE'RE IN A NEW MEDIA WORLD WITH PODCASTERS AND SOCIAL MEDIA AND A VARIETY OF VOICES THAT WE DIDN'T HAVE BEFORE, AND WALTER CRONKITE HAS LEFT THE BUILDING.

>> Eric: HOW MUCH POLITICAL SCIENCE DO YOU HAVE TO DIG THROUGH NOW AND NEW PARADIGM FROM THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM OF THE 20TH CENTURY?

>> WELL, AS I SAID, IN SOME WAYS, AND THIS SEEMS OFF, BUT IT'S TRUE, IT'S A PLAIN VANILLA ELECTION.

AND SO THE CORE POLITICAL SCIENCE MODELS THAT LOOK AT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, WHAT'S KNOWN AS RETROSPECTIVE JUDGMENT BY VOTERS, I THINK THAT HOLDS MOSTLY.

>> YEAH.

>> THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS THAT PLAYED INTO IT AND I KNOW SMART PEOPLE WILL BE SAYING WHAT ABOUT ... AND THEY'LL HAVE SOME TRUTH TO THAT.

SO I THINK IT HOLDS, AND UNFORTUNATELY WE WERE UNABLE TO KIND OF PROVIDE AN ANALYSIS FOR WHY DONALD TRUMP WAS NOMINATED.

THAT'S THE QUESTION.

>> Eric: AND THE CELEBRITY ELECTION, HOW DID KID ROCK AND HULK BE HOGAN BEAT OUT BEYONCE AND LADY GAGA?

>> WELL, THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN DID COURT MEN IN A VARIETY OF WAYS CFSS WAYS.

JOE ROGAN'S AN EXAMPLE AND THAT WAS SUCCESSFUL AND DROVE SOME TURNOUT.

PARTICULARLY THEY DID PARTICULARLY WELL, THEY CARRIED YOUNG MEN UNDER 30 WHICH IS THE THEIR IN DECADES FOR A REPUBLICAN.

>> Eric: GETTING A HOOK HERE.