>> CATHY: CONTROL OF THE MINNESOTA HOUSE IS JUST ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WILL BE DECIDED DURING THE ELECTION THIS FALL.

JOINING US NOW WITH THOUGHTS ON THAT AND OTHER POLITICAL TOPICS ARE A COUPLE OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS.

YOU ALL KNOW KATHRYN PEARSON.

SHE TEACHES AT THE TWIN CITIES CAMPUS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

AND JOINING US FOR THE FIRST TIME IS TIM LINDBERG.

HE'S A POLI SCI PROFESSOR AT THE U OF M'S CAMPUS IN MORRIS.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

OH, MY GOODNESS.

LET'S TALK ABOUT DOWN-BALLOT RACES, SHALL WE, PROFESSOR PEARSON.

NOW THAT GOVERNOR WALZ IS WITH THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE ON THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET, WHAT DO WE THINK MIGHT HAPPEN TO SOME OF THE OWN-BALLOT RACES ESPECIALLY WITH THE HOUSE RACES?

>> IT IS SIGNIFICANT BUT SORT OF TO BACK UP, THE GENERAL PICTURE, POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH SHOWS, IN MINNESOTA AND NATION-WIDE, TICKET-SPLITTING IS WAY, WAY, WAY DOWN.

SO IT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN CRITICAL RACES FOR SURE BUT IN GENERAL, PEOPLE VOTE THEIR PARTY ON ALL RACES ON THE BALLOT.

SO ENTHUSIASM ABOUT THE TOP OF THE TICKET IS REALLY KEY FOR THESE DOWN-BALLOT RAISES.

AND WE KNOW, THOUGH, THAT THE LEGISLATURE OF COURSE VERY CLOSELY DIVIDED.

THE DFL HAS A NARROW EDGE AND THERE'S ONLY ONE SENATE RACE ON THE BALLOT UILT IT WILL CONTROL IN MINNESOTA THE OUTCOME, SO HAVING GOVERNOR WALZ ON THE TICKET AS THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS I THINK ENERGIZING TO A LOT OF DEMOCRATS AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE ALSO ENERGIZED ABOUT HARRIS AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET.

CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE DFL HAVE SKYROCKETED SINCE JULY 21st WHEN PRESIDENT BIDEN STEPPED ASIDE SO IT WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS.

>> Eric: DO VOTERS HAVE A TENDENCY AND I THINK YOU STUDY VOTER BEHAVIOR QUITE A BIT.

DO LATE-DECIDING VOTERS, DO THEY GO EN MASSE TO ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER OR DO THEY DIVIDE UP OR IS THERE ANY DATA ON THAT?

>> I THINK IT DEPENDS ON THE ELECTION, DEPENDS ON THE LAST-MINUTE SORT OF WHAT HAPPENS, WE USED TO CALL IT OCTOBER SURPRISE BUT IT MAY NOT HAPPEN IN OCTOBER ANYMORE WITH ALL THE EARLY VOTING SO I THINK THE -- YOU KNOW, IT REALLY DEPENDS ON, YOU KNOW, JOBS REPORTS, BIG SCANDALS, EVENTS THAT MIGHT OCCUR.

THOSE TYPES OF THINGS CAN REALLY SHIFT THAT, AND I ALSO THINK THAT'S WHY THE DEBATE NEXT WEEK IS A REALLY IMPORTANT STEPPING STONE FOR AMALA HARRIS, IN SHOWING THAT SHE'S PREPARED FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME.

>> Eric: HERE'S A THEORY.

HARRIS, HAS SHE REACHED HER PEAK?

SUCCESSFUL CONVENTION, SUCCESSFUL GETTING ID OF BIDEN AND SHE COMES IN.

DFL AND DEMOCRATIC UNITY.

SUCCESSFUL CONVENTION.

IS THERE ROOM FOR GROWTH THERE OR IS THIS -- AS HIGH AS SHE'S GOING TO GET?

>> I THINK THAT'S AN OPEN QUESTION.

TYPICALLY BOTH PARTY'S CANDIDATES RECEIVE A BOUNCE AFTER THE CONVENTION AND THINGS TEND TO LEVEL OFF A LITTLE BIT BUT I THINK IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT LEVELING OFF MEANS.

TYPICALLY, IN MOST ELECTION YEARS, POLITICAL SCIENCE DEBATES ACTUALLY DON'T MATTER THAT MUCH.

THE PEOPLE WHO PAY ATTENTION HAVE ALREADY MADE UP THEIR MINDS AND THE CANDIDATES ARE RELATIVELY SORT OF EVEN.

BUT, OBVIOUSLY, THIS CYCLE, THE DEBATE WAS HUGE, IT'S WHAT CAUSED PRESIDENT BIDEN TO STEP ASIDE, EVENTUALLY, SO BECAUSE HARRIS IS SO NEW IN THIS ROLE AS THE CANDIDATE, I THINK THIS DOES -- THIS DEBATE REALLY DOES MATTER BUT I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSELY DIVIDED ELECTION THAT COMES DOWN TO A FEW KEY SWING STATES.

>> Eric: SHOULD SHE BE DOING BETTER OR DO WE NOT KNOW THAT?

>> I DON'T THINK SO.

I THINK AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I THINK JUST BEING ABLE TO KEEP THAT MOMENTUM GOING THAT SHE'S HAD SINCE SHE STEPPED IN AND TOOK THAT MANTLE IS REALLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF YOU DON'T NECESSARILY SEE THAT LONG OF A BOAST AND I THINK IT ALSO WAS REALLY IMPORTANT FOR THE DEMOCRATS BECAUSE OF THE BOOST THAT TRUMP GOT FROM THE AEMP THED ASSASSINATION AND HIS CONVENTION BOOST, AS WELL.

>> ONE WAY IN WHICH THE PARTIES ARE NOT EVEN AND THEY TEND TO BE EVEN IN A PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN A YEAR, IS FUNDRAISING.

DEMOCRATS ARE DOING VERY, VERY WELL IN FUNDRAISING AROUND WHEN BIDEN WAS IN THE RACE, IT WAS DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

THAT IS AN IMPORTANT INDICATOR AND IT PROVIDES THE CANDIDATES WITH THE ABILITY TO HIRE STAFF, HAVE GET OUT THE VOTE EFFORTS IN KEY SWING STATES AND RUN ADS.

>> Cathy: SO THE POLLS ARE SHOWING OBVIOUSLY A TIGHT RACE, WE KNOW THAT.

HOW MUCH STOCK SHOULD WE PUT IN THESE POLLS?

>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S REALLY INTERESTING ABOUT POLLS AND PEOPLE WILL AY, YOU KNOW, THEY WERE OFF IN 2016 AND THEY'RE OFF IN 2020 AND THE OFF-YEARS, PEOPLE OFTEN PAY LESS ATTENTION BUT IT DEPENDS ON WHAT POLLS YOU'RE LOOKING AT.

YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE NATIONAL POLLS AND SHOWING A DEAD RACE.

THAT DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS WON IN 2016, IF YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT THE NATIONAL RACE.

WHAT REALLY MATTERS IS WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE KEY STATES AND I THINK THAT'S WHERE YOU SEE A REALLY GOOD SHOWING FOR THE DEMOCRATS WITH KAMALA HARRIS IS THAT IN THESE KEY, YOU KNOW, BATTLE GROUND STATES, SHE'S DOING MUCH BELTS THAN PRESIDENT BIDEN WAS DOING THIS SUMMER.

>> Eric: ABORTION QUESTIONS AND ABORTION QUESTIONS ON BALLOTS.

>> VERY HELPFUL FOR DEMOCRATS, SO EVER SINCE DOBBS, ABORTION HAS BECOME A KEY WINNING ISSUE FOR EMOCRATS BECAUSE OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC OPINION ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

IT WAS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO BEFORE DOBBS WHEN REPUBLICANS WERE MORE MOTIVATED BY HE ISSUE, EVEN AS PUBLIC OPINION STILL SKEWED IN DEMOCRATS' FAVOR SO I THINK WE'LL HEAR VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS TALK ABOUT ABORTION A LOT AND THEN THE BALLOT MEASURES CERTAINLY HELP DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT, AS WELL.

>> Cathy: YOU MENTIONED PENNSYLVANIA.

PENNSYLVANIA IS A KEY STATE, RIGHT?

YOUR COLLEAGUE, PROFESSOR SCHULTZ, THINKS THAT PERHAPS KAMALA HARRIS MAILED A MISS IN PICKING WALZ VERSUS GOVERNOR SHAPIRO, BECAUSE THERE'S ALL THIS ATTENTION ON PENNSYLVANIA, MIGHT HE BE RIGHT?

>> NO DOUBT, PENNSYLVANIA'S 19 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES ARE CRITICAL BUT HAT DOESN'T MEAN SHE MADE A MISTAKE.

SHE'S LOOKING FOR GUY GRAPHICAL BALANCE, A SORT OF BACKGROUND BALANCE AND HE'S SHOWN THAT HE'S GREAT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AND ENERGIZING CROWDS, HE JUST SHOWED THAT IN ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA, AND GETTING THE SUPPORT OF LABOR UNIONS WHICH IS REALLY CRITICAL, AS WELL, SO, CLEARLY, PENNSYLVANIA IS IMPORTANT BUT HE RINGS BALANCE WHICH IS HELPING IN PENNSYLVANIA AND MANY OTHER OF THOSE KEY SWING STATES, AS WELL.

>> Cathy: LOOKS LIKE FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP THOUGHT HE HAD A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT MINNESOTA BUT LOOKS LIKE HE'S KIND OF RETRENCHING A BIT?

>> YEAH, I THINK LOOKING AT THE POLLING DATA, THEY EPT SAYING THEY HAD POLLING DATA THAT LOOKED BETTER AND PEOPLE WERE LIKE SHOW US THE POLLING DATA.

I THINK MINNESOTA IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH.

IT WILL BE SORT OF ON THAT EDGE OF BEING A BATTLE GROUND STATE BUT I THINK IT IS A GOOD THING HE PULLED BACK BECAUSE HE HAS TO FOCUS NOT OKIE STATES HE NEEDS TO WIN.

>> Eric: I HEAR THE BELL.