>> Cathy: FALL IN MINNESOTA.

WHEN THE LEAVES ON THE TREES TURN BRILLIANT COLORS BEFORE THEY DROP TO THE GROUND.

CRISP COOL DAYS AND EVENINGS PREPARE US FOR THE LONG WINTER AHEAD.

BUT THIS YEAR'S COLORS ARE A LITTLE MUTED AFTER A ROLLERCOASTER SUMMER AND FALL OF FLOODWATER FOLLOWED BY WARMER THAN AVERAGE FALL TEMPERATURES AND THE DRYEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD IN MINNESOTA PAUL DOUGLAS IS BACK.

WHEN HE'S NOT VISITING US HERE IN STUDIO B YOU CAN READ HIS WEATHER MUSINGS IN THE "STAR TRIBUNE."

IN HIS SPARE TIME HE RUNS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PRAEDICTIX.

GOOD TO SEE YOU, MY FRIEND.

SUPER-SIZED SUMMER.

I MEAN, IT'S REALLY -- BECAUSE, REALLY, SEPTEMBER IT WAS LIKE AUGUST.

>> TODAY IS AUGUST THE 65TH.

[ LAUGHTER ] IF ANYBODY ASKS.

YOU WANT TO CONFUSE A NEIGHBOR.

IT IS AMAZING.

AND SOME OF THIS IS NATURAL VARIABILITY.

SOME OF THIS, SYMPTOMS OF A WARMING ATMOSPHERE.

YOU CAN HAVE BOTH.

AND IT'S A TREND WE'RE SEEING WARMER WEATHER DEEPER INTO AUTUMN.

>> Cathy: I BET YOU'VE GOT THINGS TO SHOW US.

>> I DO -- YEAH, IT'S SHOW AND TELL FOR A WEATHER GUY.

>> Cathy: YES, IT IS.

>> MODERATE DROUGHT IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE STATE.

YES, IT'S DRY.

WE HAD THE DRYEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD.

6/100 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

MODERATE DROUGHT BACK IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL INNESOTA AS WELL.

BY THE WAY, WE'VE HAD A 7-MONTH BOATING SEASON IN MINNESOTA.

THERE WERE BOATS IN THE WATER IN APRIL, THERE WERE BOATS IN THE WATER TODAY.

BUT OF COURSE, AND WHO WOULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS AFTER ONE OF THE WETTEST SUMMERS ON RECORD, AINFALL WENT OFF A CLIFF RIGHT AROUND LABOR DAY AND BURN RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.

SO, YEAH,, EWE NEED RAIN.

DROUGHT IS CREEPING BACK, WE'RE IN KIND OF A WINDY PATTERN ND THAT'S GOING TO ACCELERATE THE DRYING OF THE SOIL.

ALL RIGHT.

SO AS I MENTIONED, IT IS WARMING UP SINCE 1970, ACCORDING TO CLIMATE CENTER.

MOST OF MINNESOTA, 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE DURING AUTUMN.

THAT IS IN FACT A TREND.

I MEAN, THINK ABOUT IT, WHEN I GOT HERE IN '83 THE FIRST FROST WAS OCTOBER 3RD, THAT WAS THE AVERAGE.

NOW IT'S OCTOBER HE 11TH.

AND IT KEEPS GETTING PUSHED LATER AND LATER.

WHICH SOME PEOPLE FIND DELIGHTFUL, OTHER PEOPLE REALLY WANT TO ENJOY AUTUMN.

NO EL NINO TO SAVE US THIS WINTER.

WE'RE HEADING NTO A COOL PHASE OF PACIFIC OCEAN WATER AND ODDS FAVOR A COLDER WINTER THAN LAST YEAR.

I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A PIONEER WINTER.

AND ODDS FAVOR MORE SNOW THAN THE PALTRY PITTANCE OF 29.5 INCHES LAST INTER.

AVERAGE IS 54.

AND I THINK MY SPIDEY SENSE, MY GUT FEEL, COULD BE NAUSEA, IS THAT WE WILL SEE MORE PILES OF FROZEN WATER THAN LAST YEAR.

I WOULD SAY SOMEWHERE IN THE 50, 55-INCH RANGER.

GIVE OR TAKE 30.

AND LOOK AT THIS, IT'S GOING TO COOL OFF A LITTLE BIT AFTER LOW 80S ON SATURDAY, IT'S GOING TO BE IN THE LOW 60S ON SUNDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE 70S.

WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS UP AROUND 80 IN MID-OCTOBER.

NOW, GRANTED FAR NORTH METRO, MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA HAS SEEN THE FIRST FROST BUT HERE IN THE IMMEDIATE METROS, THE SUBURBS I DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE FROST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER TWO WEEKS.

AND BY THE WAY, I MEAN, HELENE.

I THINK METEOROLOGISTS ALONG WITH EVERYBODY ELSE KIND OF LOOKING IN HORROR AT WHAT HAPPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST.

IT WAS BAD ENOUGH FOR FLORIDA, AND THEN YOU HAVE THIS INCREDIBLE SWATH OF BIBLICAL RAINS.

20, 30, 40 INCHES OF RAIN.

AND I'M NOT ALONE, I'M NOT THE ONLY METEOROLOGIST WHO SAYS THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE, YOU KNOW, CATEGORY ONE, CATEGORY THREE, CATEGORY FIVE, IT DOESN'T ACCOUNT FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING INLAND.

AFTER THE STORM COMES ASHORE.

SAFFIR SIMPSON IS FIXATED ON LANDFALL, HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS BE, HOW HIGH WILL THE SURGE, UPWELLING OF WATER AS THE HURRICANE COMES ASHORE.

BUT IT SAYS NOTHING, IT DOESN'T SET EXPECTATIONS FOR FLOODING HUNDREDS OF MILES INLAND DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.

AND SO NOAA DID A GREAT JOB, THEY TALKED ABOUT FLOODING IN PLACES LIKE ASHEVILLE, CHATTANOOGA, BUT IN THE FOG OF WAR IT KIND OF GOT LOST IN THE SAUCE.

EVERYBODY IS FIXATING -- PEOPLE ON THE COAST, HERE COMES THE HURRICANE.

AND SO WE NEED A BETTER AY I THINK TO SET EXPECTATIONS AND TO LEVERAGE SOCIAL MEDIA AS WELL S LEGACY MEDIA.

>> Cathy: SPEAKING OF EXPECTATIONS I KNOW YOU SAID THAT LA NINA TRADITIONALLY IS COLDER AND SNOWY, RIGHT, SNOWIER.

BUT WITH CLIMATE CHANGE, IS THAT REALLY TRUE NOW?

>> IT'S TAKING THE EDGE OFF.

>> Cathy: OKAY.

>> THAT COOL TREND.

SO, I MEAN, EVERY NOW AND THEN WE GOT WALLOPED WITH A REAL PIONEER WINTER.

IT HASN'T HAPPENED IN A LITTLE WHILE.

2014 WAS A TOUGH WINTER.

MOST WINTERS ARE TRENDING MILDER EVEN THE LA NINA WINTERS ARE TRENDING MILDER.

THERE WILL BE COLD FRONTS AND SNOW, ENJOY THIS HONEYMOON, AND PRAY FOR RAIN.